Wall Street Q3 projections under pressure
Sep 16, 2015 09:41 AM EDT
The US growth rate projections for the third quarter are likely to be lower following the adverse conditions in the emerging economies and possible rate hike by Federal Reserve. The China's economy slowdown and currency crisis in several emerging markets will impact revenues and earnings estimates of US companies for the third quarter.
According to forecasts from Wall Street analysts, there would be 3.4 percent drop in earnings for S&P 500 companies. The Thomson Reuters data reveals that quarter forecasts already lowered for nine out of 10 sectors of S&P 500 group this year so far.
The revenues of S&P 500 companies are projected to ease 2.8 percent for the third quarter. The huge drop in oil prices and easing demand for raw materials are taking a toll on energy and materials sectors. This will impact the performance of several companies in S&P 500 majorly during the third quarter.
Now, the market focus is on pre-announcement season and quarterly results.
The dollar index, that measures greenback against other currencies, rose 0.8 percent after the drop of 2.9 percent in the last quarter of 2014. The strengthening of the dollar will impact US exports and also weaken the buying capacity of emerging economies in the global market. In addition to the slowdown in China's economy, the latest recessionary situations in Russia and Brazil will also impact the performance of several S&P 500 companies.
Generally many S&P 500 companies tend to surpass the earnings forecasts quarter after quarter. Analysts advise that it's better to focus more on the top line (revenues) than the bottom line (profits). Companies will try to impress the market by showing encouraging profits figures by cost cutting measures and share buybacks that enable them to beat the market forecasts.
Considering the present market conditions, the sales volume is expected to be under pressure for many companies during the third quarter.
US telecommunications sector is the one segment of S&P 500 basket that's come out with encouraging projections for the third quarter.
The energy sector is going to be the worst-hit among the S&P 500. It's estimated that there would be a steep fall of over 60 percent in earnings and 30 percent in revenues for the energy companies.
The materials sector is expected to suffer over 11 percent drop in earnings as the drop in commodity prices will impact the segment. Industrials with overseas exposure may suffer earnings decline to the tune of five percent.
Despite all these adverse conditions, market players are optimistic about the rebound in the markets shortly. The US GDP growth mayn't be in line of forecasts, but it's still growing.